ACtualites du marche des changes

Price IS approaching pivot in line with the horizontal swing low support and the 61.8 % Fibonacci extension level. Should price break this level, we can expect price to plunge further to take support at the 100% Fibonacci extension and the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement . Our bearish bias is further supported by how price is holding below the EMA .

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Calculations of the fluctuations range for the present day are published in this section. That is, at the very beginning of the day, you can determine the maximum and minimum of this day (with a known probability).
What does this information give? In fact, a lot. But first of all, these are guidelines for trade. For example, if during the day the price approaches the upper (lower) mark, you know that it won’t go above (below) this mark with a particular probability today. Accordingly, you can open a position opposite to the current movement, knowing in advance what the probability is to be profitable.

EURUSD

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Wlt7Fv0H/

Long position 1
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1818
Long position 2
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1797
Long position 3
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1776

Short position 1
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.1914
Short position 2
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.1934
Short position 3
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1955

GBPUSD

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AjdPwqlJ/

Long position 1
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.3816
Long position 2
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.3787
Long position 3
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.3757

Short position 1
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.3975
Short position 2
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.4004
Short position 3
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.4033

USDJPY

https://www.tradingview.com/x/M0LiHPy9/

Long position 1
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 109.23
Long position 2
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 109.02
Long position 3
(the price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 108.80

Short position 1
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 110.09
Short position 2
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 110.31
Short position 3
(the price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 110.53

Calculations are based on historical data, and there is no history recurrence on a specific day. We remind you that the indicated probabilities values aren’t a 100% guarantee of risk-free trading.

– Bonjours,

. Je vous partage seulement mon analyse en court terme sans description,
. Un avis neutre en attente de voir sa direction pour prendre une positon .

Bonne semaine.